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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."