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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.