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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.